Engineering the Odds of Success
We aspire to reach heights of material success, yet often lack the basic framework to achieve it. All forms of material success are the result of asymmetrical rewards. You do something that generates outcomes of disproportionate magnitude. Either it continues to produce value over long periods, as in the case of a product, or it delivers a windfall, such as a startup being acquired.
The challenge with asymmetrical rewards is that we do not know how to deliberately engineer them. As a result, we must make sustained and repeated efforts. But sustained effort inevitably comes with frequent failure. And herein lies the real problem. We may learn to tolerate failure, or at least endure it, but we are not putting in enough meaningful effort over the course of our lifetime.
Look at what you did last week. Analyze all your activities and ask yourself which of them had the potential for an asymmetrical payoff. Chances are the answer is either none or very few. We must consciously identify activities that can reward us disproportionately. Failures are inevitable, but we must accept them and continue engaging in such pursuits.
This is not a suggestion to throw caution out the window. Risk must be calculated. Effort should be aligned with a clear vision. Being opportunistic is acceptable, but sacrificing everything indiscriminately only makes success feel hollow in the end. The goal is to realign your life so that maximum effort is directed toward generating asymmetrical payoffs.
This means upgrading skills that have the potential to fundamentally alter your trajectory. It means making investments that can change your life over a decade, while avoiding the foolishness of get rich quick schemes. When roughly 40 to 50 percent of your effort is directed toward asymmetrical outcomes, you are far more likely to intersect with the surface area of luck. That is the real objective. To be lucky in ways that work in your favor.
If life is governed by probability, then it makes sense to tilt the odds toward yourself. Even if success were purely a matter of luck, consistent effort still increases the likelihood of encountering it. Math is elegant that way. It remains indifferent to belief.
Realign the priorities of your week, and you will likely realign your life.